ERS Charts of Note
Subscribe to our Charts of Note series, which highlights economic research and analysis on agriculture, food, the environment, and rural America. Each week, this series highlights charts of interest from current and past ERS research.
At the end of the year, users can look forward to our Editors’ Picks of the Best of Charts of Note.
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, to decrease by $5.7 billion (3.5 percent) to $158.8 billion in 2024. This would come after NCFI decreased $58.3 billion (26.2 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $222.9 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $9.5 billion (6.3 percent) to $140.7 billion in 2024. This reduction follows a drop in NFI of $42.8 billion (22.2 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $193.1 billion in 2022 (after adjusting for inflation). Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Despite these successive declines, if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would remain above their 2004–23 averages in 2024. Among the drivers of decline in these income forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $16.6 billion (3.1 percent) to $516.9 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. However, over the same period, a $19.2 billion (4.1 percent) reduction in production expenses is expected to moderate the overall decline. Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, Economic Research Service Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page reflecting data released December 3, 2024.
Monday, December 2, 2024
In 2023, the amount of caloric sweeteners available for consumption in the United States was about 20 percent less than in 1999, falling to 123.5 pounds per person from 153.6 pounds. Caloric sweeteners provide energy in the form of carbohydrates and include refined cane and beet sugars, corn sweeteners, and honey and edible syrups. According to the USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System, a reduction in the availability of total corn sweeteners (high-fructose corn syrup, glucose syrup, and dextrose) contributed to the drop. The availability of corn sweeteners fell from a peak of 85.7 pounds per person in 1999 to 53.0 pounds in 2023. Shifting preferences among consumers and food manufacturers, rising corn prices, and competition with refined cane and beet sugars and other caloric sweeteners have contributed to this decline. The availability of refined cane and beet sugars fell from 102.3 pounds per person in 1972 to 60.0 pounds in 1986 and remained relatively flat for the next two and a half decades. Refined sugar availability began to rise in 2010, surpassing corn sweeteners in 2011 and reaching 68.4 pounds per person in 2023. Honey availability stood at 1.3 pounds per person and availability of edible syrups was 0.8 pounds per person in 2023. This chart is from the ERS Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product, updated in November 2024.
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
U.S. consumers baking a homemade apple pie for Thanksgiving this year can expect to pay about $8.80 for the ingredients, an increase of 8.0 percent from 2023. Higher prices for sugar, eggs, butter, and apples led to a $0.65 increase in the cost of a pie between 2023 and 2024. The price of the main ingredient, Granny Smith apples, increased by 5.0 percent to $1.48 per pound in October 2024 from $1.41 per pound in October 2023. Prices increased the most for eggs (60.0 percent), followed by butter (8.6 percent), between October 2023 and October 2024. The costs contributed by lemons and flour were the same in October 2024 as October 2023. If serving the apple pie à la mode, ice cream adds an additional $0.39 per scoop, an increase of $0.01 from last year. The most recent average price data are from October, meaning prices for Thanksgiving week may vary. For example, savings may occur if grocers offer holiday discounts. USDA, Economic Research Service tracks aggregate food category prices and publishes price forecasts in the monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated on November 25, 2024.
Tuesday, November 26, 2024
USDA forecasts 2024 turkey production at 5.1 billion pounds, a decrease of 6 percent from 2023 and a 12-percent decrease from 2019. From 2019 to 2022, increasing wholesale prices drove up the value of production (a product of quantity and price). Production values peaked in 2022, when highly pathogenic avian influenza depleted turkey supplies, and the annual average wholesale price jumped by $0.32 per pound. These factors supported a 20-percent increase in the value of production in 2022. In 2023, production increased nearly 5 percent, the wholesale price dropped, and the total value of production fell about 8 percent from 2022. In 2024, the projected average wholesale price for whole frozen hens in 2024 is $0.94 per pound, a decrease of $0.46 cents from 2023. Market indicators suggest that consumer demand for turkey has declined, with per capita consumption of turkey meat falling a projected 13 percent between 2019 and 2024. This chart draws from Turkey Sector: Background & Statistics, published by USDA’s Economic Research Service.
Monday, November 25, 2024
Land-use varies widely across the United States—reflecting differences in soil, climate, topography, and general economic activity. Cropland is largely concentrated in the central regions of the contiguous United States, making up the majority of land in the Northern Plains and Corn Belt (51 percent and 54 percent, respectively). Shares of cropland in the Southern Plains (19 percent), Lake States (32 percent), and Delta States (20 percent) regions are also above the national average. Grassland pasture and range are concentrated in the Mountain and Southern Plains regions, where they account for about 60 percent and 58 percent, respectively. Forest-use land is most prevalent in the Northeast, Appalachia, Southeast, and Delta States—which have most of their land (between 57 and 60 percent) in forest uses. However, in terms of total acreage, most forest-use land is located in Alaska (92 million acres) and the Mountain region (97 million acres). Special-use land, most of which is devoted to rural parks and wilderness areas, is largely concentrated in Alaska and the Mountain and Pacific regions, where there are larger amounts of public lands. The Northeast (12 percent) and Southeast (10 percent) regions have the highest relative areas devoted to urban uses. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Major Uses of Land in the United States, 2017, released in September 2024.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
The United States produces about two-thirds of the world’s cranberries, based on 2018–22 data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In 2023, the United States exported $343.1 million of cranberries. Adjusting for inflation, the value of U.S. cranberry exports was 2 percent lower than 2022 and $85.9 million lower than the 2018 high. Processed cranberry products, like cranberry sauce or juice, make up about 95 percent of the value of all U.S. cranberry exports. These processed cranberry products were largely destined for Canada, Mexico, China, and the Netherlands. Prepared or preserved cranberry exports, valued at $267.6 million, accounted for 78 percent of cranberry export value. Meanwhile, cranberry juice exports were valued at $57.1 million. The United States also imports cranberries, with almost all imported cranberries and cranberry products entering from Canada. In 2023, the United States imported $194.5 million of cranberries, up from the inflation-adjusted low of $111.7 million in 2019. While processed cranberry products are imported throughout the year, fresh cranberry trade is highly seasonal, with volumes spiking in autumn ahead of the holiday season. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Report, released September 2024.
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Chemical fertilizers have undergone significant changes in the composition and concentration of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash over time. These quality changes mean that current fertilizers can be more effective than past ones, making it difficult to calculate the productivity of the agricultural sector from year to year. To accurately account for the role of fertilizer in agricultural productivity, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers adjust for the changes in composition and concentration of fertilizer. They find that farmers used 2 times more fertilizer in 2021 than in 1948 when unadjusted for quality, and 2.5 times more fertilizer once adjusted for quality. The trend of increased fertilizer use for both unadjusted and adjusted quality can be partially explained by relative price changes between fertilizer and other inputs, which prompted producers to increase fertilizer use compared with other inputs, such as land and labor. For more on U.S. agricultural productivity trends, see the ERS topic page Agricultural Research and Productivity and the ERS data product Agricultural Productivity in the United States. This chart updates data appearing in the ERS report Measurement of Output, Inputs, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agricultural Productivity Accounts, published in August 2024.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Households spend more money on food as their incomes rise, but the amount spent represents a smaller share of their overall budgets. U.S. households were divided into five equal groups, or quintiles, by household income. Households in the lowest income quintile had an average after-tax income of $16,171 and spent an average of $5,278 on food (about $102 a week) in 2023, which amounted to 32.6 percent of their income. Households in the middle income quintile had an after-tax income of $66,606 and spent an average of $8,989 on food (about $173 a week), representing 13.5 percent of their income. Households in the highest income quintile, with an average after-tax income of $211,042, spent an average of $16,996 on food (about $327 a week) in 2023. The share of income spent on food for that group was much smaller at 8.1 percent. As households gain more disposable income, they often shift to more expensive food options, including dining out. Food spending as a share of income rose across all income quintiles in 2023, as food prices increased faster than the overall inflation rate of 4.1 percent. Total food prices increased 5.8 percent in 2023, and food-at-home (grocery) prices increased 5.0 percent. However, despite higher-than-average food price increases from 2020–23, households’ share of income spent on food in 2023 was lower than in 2019 for the lowest three income quintiles and slightly higher for the highest two income quintiles. This chart appears in the Food Prices and Spending section of the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product.
Monday, November 18, 2024
U.S. farm establishments received 15.9 cents per dollar spent on domestically produced food in 2023 as compensation for farm commodity production. This amount, called the farm share, is a decrease of 0.1 cent from the 2022 share, which was revised up to 16.0 cents from 14.9 cents. The farm share covers operating expenses as well as input costs from nonfarm establishments. The remaining portion of the food dollar—known as the marketing share—covers post-farm costs such as transporting, processing, and selling food to consumers. The primary data sources for the USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Dollar Series underwent substantial revisions that were incorporated in the latest release. Revisions can affect the measurement of things such as farm commodity inputs to food production in the domestic economy, and this can lead to changes in the previously published farm shares. ERS uses input–output analysis to calculate the farm and marketing shares of a food dollar, which is a dollar constructed to represent all domestic expenditures of U.S. food. The data for this chart can be found in the ERS Food Dollar Series data product, updated November 18, 2024.
Thursday, November 14, 2024
The U.S. organic milk sector has expanded over the past three decades. In response to increased consumer demand for organic milk, producers increased the U.S. organic milk cow inventory from 2,265 cows in 1992 to 352,289 cows in 2021. This growth was paralleled by a rise in farm-level sales of organic milk, which grew by 88 percent from 2008 to 2021. Organic farm milk sales increased as a percentage of all U.S. farm milk sales from 1.5 percent in 2008 to 2.3 percent in 2021. Similarly, the number of organic dairy farms rose from 2008 to 2019, supporting higher production levels. From 2019 to 2021, however, the number of U.S. organic dairy farms selling milk decreased, with increasing milk production capacity offsetting the decline in farms. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report, U.S. Certified Organic Dairy Production: Three Decades of Growth.
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
The poverty rate for rural children under 5 years old was the highest of any age group in both rural and urban areas, standing at 20.9 percent. The poverty status of children is based on their family’s total income, so it is typically correlated with labor force characteristics of the parent(s). Young adults often have low levels of education, may be enrolled in school, and may be early in their career or have limited time in the workforce, which may restrict their ability as parents to earn enough to be above the poverty level. In addition, workers in many rural areas face limited job opportunities and lower wages relative to urban areas. Single parenthood (only one potential earner) and lack of childcare can also inhibit parental engagement in the labor force. The poverty rate—the portion of the population living below the official poverty level—for the rural population in general was 13.6 percent (about 6 million people) in 2023 compared with 10.7 percent for the urban population. About 46 million people lived in rural counties in 2023, roughly 14 percent of the U.S. population. This figure appears in Rural America at a Glance: 2024 Edition, published in November 2024.
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
In 2023, households that included an adult with disabilities reported higher food insecurity rates than households with no adults with disabilities. Food-insecure households are those that had difficulty at some time during the year providing enough food for all their members because of a lack of resources. In 2023, 33.9 percent of U.S. households that included an adult out of the labor force because of a disability were food insecure (low and very low food security). Among U.S. households with an adult age 18–64 who reported a disability but was not out of the labor force because of it, 28.3 percent were food insecure. In contrast, 10.5 percent of households without an adult with disabilities were food insecure in 2023. Households that include at least one adult 65 and over who reported a disability had a food insecurity prevalence rate of 11.1 percent. Very low food security, the more severe form of food insecurity in which normal eating patterns were disrupted and the food intake of some household members was reduced, was also higher for households that included adults with disabilities. In 2023, the prevalence of very low food security for households that included adults not in the labor force because of a disability was more than four times that of households without an adult with disabilities (16.4 percent compared with 3.4 percent of households). Households that include adults ages 18–64 with a disability, but not out of the labor force because of the disability, also experienced higher prevalence rates of very low food insecurity at 13.5 percent. This chart appears in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Interactive Charts and Highlights page.
Thursday, November 7, 2024
In 2023, U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.2 percent of their disposable personal income on food, consistent with the level observed in 2022. Disposable personal income is the amount of money that U.S. consumers have left to spend or save after paying taxes. Consumer preferences between food-at-home and food-away-from-home spending shifted over time and have returned to trends observed before the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Specifically, 5.3 percent of disposable personal income was spent on food at home, down from 5.6 percent in 2022. Conversely, expenditures on food away from home rose to 5.9 percent from 5.6 percent the previous year. This shows a growing consumer preference for dining out and buying prepared meals. Several factors may contribute to this shift, including lifestyle changes that emerged after the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, more desire for convenience in meal options, and an increase in disposable personal income, which rose by 8.1 percent in 2023. An increase in disposable personal income provides consumers with greater financial flexibility, allowing more dining experiences outside the home. The chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series data product, Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, the recently updated Interactive Charts: Food Expenditures and the Amber Waves article U.S. Consumers Increased Spending on Food Away From Home in 2023, Driving Overall Food Spending Growth.
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
The 2022 Census of Agriculture shows that around 84,000 farms operated by a producer with military service engage in cattle farming (29 percent), making it the most common commodity specialization among those with military service. It is followed closely by “other crop farming” with 79,000 operations (27 percent). “Other animal production” ranks third with approximately 59,000 farms, while operations specializing in “oilseed and grain” and “specialty crops” are less common, with around 37,000 and 30,000 farms respectively. In 2022, there were 289,372 farms operated by at least one producer with current or prior military service, which represents about 15 percent of all farm operations. These farms were mostly small, with an average farm size of 373 acres, compared with the overall U.S. average farm size of 463 acres. Information about farm businesses can be found in the USDA, Economic Research Service report America’s Farms and Ranches at a Glance, 2023 edition.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Farming activities in the United States accounted for 10.5 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. From 2021 to 2022, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions decreased from 681.6 to 663.6 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent and decreased from 10.8 percent to 10.5 percent as a share of the entire U.S. economy’s emissions. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimated that in 2022, agriculture emitted 309.1 MMT directly as nitrous oxide (N2O), 277.0 MMT directly as methane (CH4), 47.9 MMT directly as on-farm carbon dioxide (CO2), and indirectly emitted 29.7 MMT through electricity the agricultural sector uses. Agricultural practices that emit nitrous oxide include nitrogen fertilizer application and manure management. Major sources of agricultural methane emissions include enteric fermentation, manure management, and rice cultivation. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has identified the industrial sector as the largest sectoral contributor to total greenhouse gas emissions (29.5 percent), followed by transportation, commercial, residential, agriculture, and U.S. territories (listed as a group because no specific consumption data can be attributed within the territories). Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 were 0.2 percent greater than they were in 2021. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service topic page Climate Change.
Monday, November 4, 2024
In marketing year 2024/25, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that U.S. farmers planted record-low sunflower acreage, nearly half of what was planted in the previous year. The largest decline in acreage occurred for the type of sunflower that is grown mainly to produce oil and is also used in bird food. On average, oil-type sunflower acreage accounts for nearly 90 percent of total sunflower acreage, whereas in 2024/25 it is forecast to account for 83 percent. Most of the decline in acreage occurred in the top two producing States, North Dakota and South Dakota. This decline is attributed to lower profitability compared with other oilseed crops, such as canola and soybeans. Sunflower stocks at the end of 2023/24 were the highest since 2016/17, contributing to the lowest average farm price since 2019/20. In addition, expansion in canola and soybean processing facilities in North Dakota created new domestic demand for those oilseeds, supporting expansion in acreage of canola and soybeans at the loss of sunflower acres. While the planted acreage is at a record low, yields in 2024/25 are forecast at a record high because of peak growing conditions in the Dakotas. Still, total sunflower production in 2024/25 is forecast at 1.3 billion pounds, the lowest since 1976/77. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook, October 2024.
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Over time, the quality of agricultural pesticides has improved. Modern pesticides (which include herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides) have higher potency, persistence, toxicity, and absorption rates compared with products available in the past. Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) track the quantities of pesticides used in agriculture production and adjust them for quality changes as part of calculating the productivity of the industry. Using 1948 as a starting point, the quantities of quality-adjusted and non-adjusted pesticides used were 15 times and 8 times, respectively, their 1948 levels. Pesticide use over time has increased partially because of a relative fall in pesticide prices compared to other inputs that prompted producers to increase pesticide use, and a change in the mix of crops, particularly the substantial increase in corn and soybean acreage that require more pesticides. Other factors that have driven fluctuations in pesticide use include the widespread use of genetically engineered crops that are insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant; the eradication of the boll weevil, which helped reduce pesticide use in cotton-growing areas; and increased awareness of environmental impacts of pesticide use. For more on U.S. agricultural productivity trends, see the ERS topic page Agricultural Research and Productivity and the ERS data product Agricultural Productivity in the U.S. This chart updates one found in the ERS report Measurement of Output, Inputs, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agricultural Productivity Accounts, published in August 2024.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
In 2023, more than half of all food-insecure households in the United States had one or more adult members employed full time. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) monitors the prevalence of U.S. household food insecurity through an annual survey and provides information about the characteristics of food-insecure households, including their employment status. The employment status for each household is measured using the combined employment status of all adult household members. Households are placed into mutually exclusive employment categories based on the employment status of the adult most attached to the labor market. In 2023, households with adults employed full time made up the largest share of food-insecure households at 56 percent, a share that has remained stable since 2017. Households with one or more adults employed part time because it was the only job available (called part time for economic reasons) comprised the smallest share of food-insecure households at 2 percent. Households with unemployed adults looking for work also made up a small share of the food-insecure population at 3.5 percent. The remaining food-insecure households had one or more adults who were retired, disabled, employed part time for noneconomic reasons, or not in the labor force. An interactive visualization and the underlying downloadable data for prevalence, severity (low and very low food security), and distribution of food insecurity by household employment status can be found on the ERS Interactive Charts and Highlights page.
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Since 2019, the Cuban economy has struggled to export enough goods and services to finance imports. This has made it difficult for Cuba to afford the importation of not only agricultural commodities like rice, corn, and wheat, but also agricultural inputs that would help to bolster domestic crop production, such as fertilizers, herbicides, and farm machinery. Moreover, a succession of tropical storms and other adverse weather conditions have presented additional challenges to Cuba’s farmers. The impact of these conditions is apparent in Cuba’s declining staple crop production, which has contributed to lower consumption of these commodities. Production of both rice and corn in Cuba has trended downward since marketing year 2016/17 according to USDA estimates, while imports, largely from South America and East Asia, have tempered the accompanying reduction in consumption. Cuba relies almost entirely on imports for the wheat used to make flour and bread, and these imports—along with consumption—have declined over the past decade, as reflected in decreased rations of bread from the Cuban Government. In contrast to declining staple crop consumption, chicken consumption in Cuba has trended modestly higher, largely because of increased poultry imports, in part from the United States. In 2023, chicken meat accounted for about 82 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba. This chart also appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report, Cuba’s Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports.
Monday, October 28, 2024
About 40 percent of U.S. farmers worked 200 or more days off the farm in 2022, according to the 2022 Census of Agriculture. The majority—93.2 percent—of the 3,078 U.S. counties for which data were reported had at least 30 percent of producers working 200 days or more off the farm. Further, 83 counties (2.7 percent) had at least 50 percent of producers working off farm 200 days or more. Counties with relatively few producers working 200 days or more off farm were scattered across the country, with many in remote areas of the western United States, and several located in metro areas. The majority of U.S. farm operations have more than one producer engaged in decisions or duties related to the farm business, which would increase the time available for off-farm work for any single producer. For farms with two producers, 41 percent of producers worked off farm 200 days or more, with a similar portion of producers on farms with either three or four producers doing so. In comparison, 35 percent of producers on farms with only one producer did so. Off-farm work is a significant source of income for most farm households and can additionally provide health and retirement benefits. According to Agricultural Resource Management Survey data, more than half of family farms did not turn a profit in 2022, and 84 percent of farm households earned at least half their total income from off-farm sources. For more details from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, see the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Census of Agriculture website. Information on producers and households can be found on the USDA, Economic Research Service’s topic page Farm Household Well-being.