Market Outlook

See the latest Wheat Outlook report.

U.S. Exports Raised but Still Trail Key Competitors

The United States was historically the world’s leading wheat exporter through the 2012/13 July–June Trade Year (TY) and briefly reclaimed that position in 2016/17. However, in recent years, declining acreage has contributed to smaller U.S. production while other competitors have expanded their production and exports. U.S. exports are raised this month 1.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 23.5 MMT. This increase is supported by the fast pace of export sales and shipments, as well as smaller export forecasts for key competitors Russia and the European Union (EU). Even as U.S. exports are forecast at a 4-year high, Russian exports are forecast twice as large at 47.0 MMT. Russia’s exports are forecast down this month due to its recent imposition of an export quota for the last 4.5 months of the TY. EU wheat exports are forecast lower with a smaller crop but would still be the second largest global supplier. Australia and Canada are forecast to outpace U.S. wheat exports with bumper crops.