Highlights from the September 2024 Farm Income Forecast

Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2024, September 5). Farm Sector Income & Finances: Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast.

Farm Sector Profits Forecast To Fall in 2024

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $140.0 billion in calendar year 2024, a decrease of $6.5 billion (4.4 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $10.2 billion (6.8 percent) in 2024 relative to 2023. Despite this expected decline, net farm income in 2024 would be 15.2 percent above its 20-year average (2004–23) of $121.5 billion but 27.6 percent below the 2022 record high in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Net cash farm income is forecast at $154.1 billion in 2024, a decrease of $12.0 billion (7.2 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal dollars. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) from 2023. In 2024, net cash farm income is forecast to be 6.2 percent above its 2004–23 average of $145.1 billion and 31.0 percent below the 2022 record high. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.

Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease by $9.8 billion (1.9 percent, in nominal terms) from 2023 to $516.5 billion in 2024. Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by $27.7 billion (10.0 percent) from 2023, led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. In contrast, total animal/animal product receipts are expected to increase by $17.8 billion (7.1 percent), following increases in receipts for eggs, cattle/calves, milk, and broilers.

Direct Government payments are forecast to fall by $1.8 billion (15.1 percent) from 2023 to $10.4 billion in 2024. This decrease is expected largely because of lower Dairy Margin Coverage Program payments and lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance in 2024 relative to 2023. Total production expenses, including operator dwelling expenses, are forecast to decrease by $4.4 billion (1.0 percent) to $457.5 billion in 2024. Feed, fertilizer (including lime and soil conditioners), and pesticide expenses are expected to see the largest declines in 2024.

Average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to decrease 8.9 percent from 2023 to $106,200 per farm in 2024 (in nominal terms). Farm businesses are farms with annual gross cash farm income (GCFI)—annual income before expenses—of at least $350,000, or operations with less than $350,000 in annual gross cash farm income but that report farming as the operator's primary occupation. Six out of nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income fall in 2024 relative to 2023, with farm businesses located in the Heartland region expected to see the largest decline. When grouped by commodity specialization, all farm businesses specializing in crops are forecast to see lower average net cash income in 2024 while those specializing in animal/animal products are forecast to see higher net cash farm income in 2024. Farms specializing in wheat are expected to see the largest percentage decline and those specializing in dairy are expected to see the largest percentage increase relative to 2023.

Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 5.3 percent ($186.1 billion) from 2023 to $3.68 trillion in 2024 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 5.2 percent ($207.9 billion) to $4.22 trillion in 2024 following expected increases in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 4.2 percent ($21.8 billion) to $540.8 billion in 2024. The debt-to-asset ratio for the sector is forecast to improve modestly from 12.93 percent in 2023 to 12.81 percent in 2024. Working capital is forecast to fall 4.2 percent in 2024 relative to 2023.

Get the full 2024 forecasts for farm sector income or see all data tables on farm income indicators.

Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast To Increase in 2024

Median total farm household income decreased slightly in 2023 to $97,984 from $98,015 in 2022. Household income is forecast to increase to $99,683 in 2024; a nominal increase of 1.7 percent relative to 2023, but a decrease of 0.7 percent after accounting for inflation.

Farm households typically receive income from farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households decreased to -$900 in 2023 from -$800 in 2022 and is forecast to increase slightly in 2024 to -$834. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Median off-farm income in 2023 declined to $79,900 from $82,045 in 2022. In 2024, off-farm income is forecast at $82,796, an increase of 3.6 percent (1.1 percent after inflation) relative to 2023. Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.

See the Farm Household Income and Characteristics data product tables for financial statistics of farm operator households.

See also